|
As I write this it's approximately 8:30 PM on Saturday, January 15th. Just a little over two weeks ago rampant paranoia about the possible ramifications of the supposedly horrific computer glitches that were going to affect computers worldwide had many in a state of panic. Bottled water sales went through the roof, as did canned goods sales, as people bought plenty of both in case Armageddon occurred. Nothing significant happened, and all those who got caught up in a panicked frenzy looked quite silly. Y2K talk is now dead. Thank god. However, this year could well be one of the most significant years for the videogame industry in recent memory. Not only could sales hit yet another landmark high, but a major first could well take place.
Back in '85, when the NES was released stateside, an epiphany of sorts took place. The days of Atari's dominance had long gone and the gaming market was essentially dead. The NES single handedly revived the industry and the rest is history. However, despite competition in the form of Sega's Master System, the market was, for all intents and purposes, dominated by the NES. Four years later Sega unleashed the Genesis on the American public, and NEC released the Turbo Grafix 16 around the same time. Soon thereafter history repeated itself as the Genesis gained a sizable IUB in a relatively short period of time and the TG-16 became what amounted to a cult phenomenon at best. After dominating the market for several years Nintendo realized it was time to put the fading NES to rest and unleash the Super NES in order to compete with Sega. The SNES saw immediate success thanks in large part to Super Mario World, and thus the console market came to support two machines simultaneously. Aside from the brief look back, what am I getting at? It's quite simple. At no time has the console market ever had more than two platforms achieve significant success simultaneously. With the Dreamcast now firmly established in North America and the PlayStation 2 and Dolphin set to hit Japan and North America this year, we could well see the console market have three successful consoles at the same time for the first time. Now, we all know what constitutes "success" is highly subjective, so let me tell you what I consider a "successful" console to be. Any console with broad third party support, an IUB of at least two million, and consistent and steady hardware and software sales up until the end of its lifespan. Granted, there is no definitive definition of a "successful" console, and my criteria for what constitutes a "successful" console is just that, my own. You may agree or disagree, but for the purposes of this article, you can go ahead and refer to the aforementioned criteria when I talk about a "successful" console.
Just about a week ago Sega announced that the Dreamcast had sold roughly 1.5 million units in North America since its launch on September 9th. That milestone was hit a full three months ahead of Sega's own projections and should put to rest any doubt that anyone has about the fate of the Dreamcast on this side of the Pacific. Still, sticking to the criteria I gave above, I won't consider the Dreamcast a bonafide success until it hits two million units sold in North America. Its sales are still abysmal in Japan, and although a company can survive being almost entirely dependent on one market, success in both Japan and North America is the only way to achieve total market dominance. Nevertheless, I think that two millionth Dreamcast sale is but a mere technicality, and will come in the next few months. So, Sega of America has to be smiling big smiles right now, but how long can their elation last with the threat of the PlayStation 2 and Dolphin looming? Will the Dreamcast fall by the wayside and die a quick death thanks to Sony and Nintendo's new beasts? I'm sure there are plenty of people out there who think just that will occur, but I happen to believe that the Dreamcast, PlayStation 2, and Dolphin will all thrive for years to come, thereby making it the first time there have ever been three consoles thriving at one time. Sure, there have been plenty of niche consoles like the Neo Geo, 3DO, and TG-16, but they were hardly what I'd call successful. So what makes me think that the Dreamcast, PlayStation 2, and Dolphin will make their respective companies big bucks? Simple. The console market is burgeoning right now, and that growth shows no signs of stopping. While the image of videogames as a kids' hobby still prevails, it's an image that's slowly, but surely, changing. More adults than every before are buying and playing games, and the types of games coming out most definitely reflect that fact. This growth has made it possible for the market to now have three successful consoles at once instead of just two.
In addition to the ever increasing videogames market, people's incomes are also at an all time high. Unemployment is incredibly low, the stock market is in full fledged Bull mode, and people are spending, spending, spending. Now, unless the market crashes or something else occurs which causes a major recession, people are still going to be in spending mode when the PS2 and Dolphin hit. Little Timmy may have already gotten a Dreamcast this past Christmas, but now he wants a Dolphin and or PlayStation 2, and mommy and daddy see no reason to say no since they've got money to spare. However, there is a recession in Japan at the moment, and that could have a significant effect on initial PlayStation 2 sales when the PS2 becomes available there on March 4th. Sony could quite easily end up being in the same boat Sega is come year's end. Piss poor sales in Japan as opposed to fantastic sales in North America. On the other hand, the PlayStation 2 could become another Saturn; an abhorrent failure of a follow-up to an incredibly successful console. Of course, a huge bacteria laden asteroid could hurtle toward the earth unseen, hit us, and wipe out all life, but neither that scenario or the scenario of a PlayStation 2 failure seem at all likely. As far as Nintendo goes, they've decided to release what amounts to their own 32X of sorts in the form of the 64 DD as a sort of stopgap measure while they continue to get the Dolphin ready for release. The 64 DD will almost certainly tread water and become a mere footnote in gaming history, but Nintendo is doing what it can to hurt Sony and Sega, despite the fact that their effort is ultimately futile.
What it all boils down to is my prediction that, come this time next year (assuming the Dolphin is out stateside by then), we'll be well on our way to seeing the Dreamcast, PS2, and Dolphin all thrive. The immediate future will be a little less murky once E3 has come and gone, but I feel quite confident that a new, and unprecedented, age of gaming is upon us. I for one plan to sit back, relax, and enjoy all the great games that I'll be playing on the PS2, Dreamcast, and Dolphin. I hope you all have enjoyed reading my take on the future of gaming, and I'm sure many of you may have a few things to say in response. If you'd like to respond and possibly see your response up on our letters page, please email your comments to letters@coremagazine.com You can also email me directly at ian@coremagazine.com
Until next time.
--Ian Johnston
|
